High Ratings for Kim and Terekhov Do Not Guarantee Electoral Success, Pollster Warns

Despite enjoying strong public approval ratings, Ukraine’s Minister of Veterans Affairs Yuliia Svyrydenko replacement candidate Oleksandr Kim and Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov face uncertain electoral futures, according to the director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). Anton Hrushetskyi, a leading Ukrainian pollster, has outlined several critical factors that could significantly impact the political fortunes of these two prominent figures as Ukraine navigates the complex landscape of wartime governance and potential future elections.

The analysis comes at a time when political speculation in Ukraine has intensified, with many observers watching closely how wartime leaders will fare when democratic processes eventually resume in full. Both Kim, who serves as Minister of Veterans Affairs, and Terekhov, who has led Kharkiv through some of the most devastating attacks of the Russian invasion, have built substantial public profiles during the ongoing conflict.

The Volatility of Wartime Political Support

Hrushetskyi emphasized that current approval ratings, while impressive, represent only a snapshot of public sentiment during extraordinary circumstances. The sociologist pointed out that wartime conditions create unique dynamics in public opinion, where crisis leadership is evaluated differently than peacetime governance. Citizens rally around leaders who demonstrate competence during emergencies, but this support can prove ephemeral once the immediate threat subsides and voters begin evaluating leaders on broader criteria including economic performance, corruption, and policy implementation.

Historical precedents from other post-conflict societies suggest that wartime heroes often struggle to maintain their popularity once peace returns. The transition from crisis management to routine governance exposes leaders to scrutiny on issues that may have been overlooked during the conflict. For Ukrainian politicians, this means that the political capital accumulated during the war years may depreciate rapidly if not converted into tangible achievements that resonate with voters’ everyday concerns.

Regional Dynamics and National Ambitions

The case of Ihor Terekhov is particularly instructive. As mayor of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city located just 40 kilometers from the Russian border, Terekhov has overseen the city’s resilience under constant bombardment. His leadership during the failed Russian attempt to capture Kharkiv in the early days of the invasion earned him significant recognition both domestically and internationally. However, Hrushetskyi noted that local popularity does not automatically translate into national electoral success, and the challenges facing Kharkiv’s reconstruction present both opportunities and risks for the mayor’s political future.

For Oleksandr Kim, who has gained prominence through his work with Ukraine’s veteran community, the political calculus is equally complex. With hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians having served in the armed forces since 2022, veterans’ issues have become central to the national political discourse. Kim’s ability to address the needs of this growing constituency while managing the bureaucratic challenges of his ministry will likely determine whether his current ratings translate into durable political influence. The minister faces the difficult task of balancing limited resources against expanding demands from a veteran population that grows larger with each passing month of the conflict.

Factors That Will Shape Future Electoral Outcomes

According to the KIIS director, several key factors will determine whether Kim and Terekhov can convert their current standing into electoral victories. These include the overall trajectory of the war, the state of Ukraine’s economy, the effectiveness of international support, and the ability of these leaders to maintain their public image amid the inevitable political competition that will emerge as elections approach. Hrushetskyi also highlighted the importance of party affiliations and coalition-building, noting that independent popularity must eventually be channeled through political structures to achieve electoral success.

The Ukrainian political landscape remains highly fluid, with new figures emerging and established politicians repositioning themselves in anticipation of future contests. Both Kim and Terekhov will need to navigate this shifting terrain while continuing to perform their current duties under extraordinarily difficult conditions. Their ultimate success will depend not only on their own performance but also on factors largely beyond their control, including the international security environment and the pace of Ukraine’s European integration process.